Analysis: Bitcoin breaks the pattern seen ahead of the last three U.S. midterm elections, with its current price 5.2% above the 200-day moving average

TechFlow reports, Nov. 3 — According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin's market performance ahead of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections has broken the pattern seen in the previous three election cycles. As of Nov. 3, Bitcoin was trading at about $76,990, roughly 5.2% above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of $73,169, indicating that its long-term trend remains above the moving average.

By comparison, during the 2014, 2018, and 2022 U.S. midterm elections, Bitcoin's price was about 35%, 9%, and 22% below its 200-day moving average, respectively, all amid bear markets. The report noted that although Bitcoin broke above $126,000 in October 2025, the decline in this bear market has been relatively shallow and was mainly concentrated in January and February this year.

Martin Lee, Head of Research at DWF Labs, said historical data shows that Bitcoin typically experiences choppy or slightly weak performance in the first few months after midterm elections, but has risen in the subsequent 12 months each time. However, short-term price action may still be affected by election results, ETF fund flows, U.S. employment data, and geopolitical risks.

In addition, Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index BVIV has broken out of a descending triangle pattern, indicating that market expectations for short-term volatility have increased somewhat.

Source: TechFlow