HTX DeepThink: AI Investment Returns Reassessed; BTC's Safe-Haven Status Unverified Amid Tech Stock Sell-Off

Shenchao TechFlow News, November 6: Chloe, a contributor to the HTX DeepThink column and a researcher at HTX Research, noted that the sharp volatility in global risk assets this week was mainly driven by the market's reassessment of the investment return cycle across the AI industry chain. Democrats won majorities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives in the midterm elections, and the market initially interpreted this as fading political uncertainty, prompting a brief rebound in U.S. equities and crypto assets. Investors then quickly refocused on the high interest rate environment and companies' ability to deliver earnings, and risk appetite reversed rapidly.

On November 5, the S&P 500 closed at 7,353.73 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 3.44% in a single day, the VIX rose to 28.18, and selling pressure was evident in the Nasdaq and large-cap tech stocks. Large technology companies have continued to expand data center and compute spending, and the tension between free cash flow pressure and the pace of revenue monetization has gradually emerged. With the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remaining near the high level of 5%, valuation headroom for growth stocks has narrowed further, and capital attention is shifting toward earnings quality and capital efficiency.

The crypto market faced pressure at the same time. BTC briefly fell to around $76,000 this week, rebounded above $80,000 after the election results were released, and then retreated to around $75,700 on November 5. ETH fell to around $2,250, and 24-hour derivatives liquidations briefly exceeded $1 billion. BTC spot ETFs continued to see intermittent outflows, with a single-day net outflow of about $399 million on November 3, while incremental institutional capital was insufficient to absorb selling pressure from deleveraging and position reductions. BTC's correlation with the U.S. tech sector strengthened again, and it failed to demonstrate an independent safe-haven attribute during equity market declines.

Next week, the U.S. CPI release on November 10 will be a key catalyst. If inflation comes in below expectations and U.S. Treasury yields decline, tech stocks and crypto assets may stage an oversold rebound; if inflation remains sticky, high-valuation sectors may continue to face pressure. In the short term, the S&P 500 is expected to trade in a range of 7,200-7,600 points, while BTC's key levels are $75,000 support and $80,000-$82,000 resistance. The overall view remains cautiously neutral; whether ETF flows return to net inflows and whether tech stocks stabilize will determine whether the market can rebuild sustained risk appetite.

Note: The content of this article is not investment advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation of an offer, or recommendation of any investment product.

Source: Shenchao TechFlow