Bitget UEX Daily Report: Fed holds rates steady; cloud vendor earnings diverge; AI infrastructure stocks extend strength

I. Featured Headlines

Fed: Holds rates steady, two officials advocate a rate hike

The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 3.75%–4.00% by a 10–2 vote. The statement said economic activity is expanding strongly and capital investment remains solid, while emphasizing that inflation remains elevated; Cook and Hammack advocated a 25-basis-point hike.

Market impact:This pause in rate hikes did not rule out further tightening, and policy decisions remain constrained by inflation. Tonight's GDP and PCE data will help the market reassess growth resilience and the subsequent rate path.

Tech earnings:MicrosoftandAlphabetdiverge after hours, cash flow becomes key

Microsoft and Alphabet reported earnings after the U.S. market close on October 28. In early trading after the earnings release, Microsoft rose more than 4% at one point and Alphabet fell more than 7% at one point, diverging from both companies' regular-session closing performance that day.

Market impact:Cloud business growth alone is not enough to explain the full stock-price reaction. Looking at the cash flow statements, the market needs to assess revenue realization, capital expenditures, and cash conversion at the same time; financial differences within the AI supply chain are becoming more important.

Energy: U.S.crude inventories decline, refined product demand still needs separate observation

EIA data showed that for the week ending October 23, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by about 1.9 million barrels to 410.6 million barrels, about 4% below the five-year average for the same period. Gasoline inventories rose by about 3.9 million barrels over the same period.

Market impact:Crude inventory draws support supply and demand, but gasoline builds mean a decline in crude inventories cannot be directly equated with broadly stronger end-user demand. Going forward, oil price sustainability needs to be judged together with refinery utilization, product consumption, and supply disruptions.

II. Market Recap

Commodities and FX Performance

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose above 5%, keeping growth-stock valuations under pressure from higher discount rates. Oil prices remained elevated, and energy costs are still an important variable for inflation and corporate margins; gold will need to be watched for changes in real rates and the dollar. The commodity quotes above are not used as a basis for judging the day's percentage gains or losses.

Crypto Performance

• BTC：about 81,156.84 USDT, up 0.47% in 24 hours.
• ETH：about 2,356.59 USDT, up 0.41% in 24 hours.
• Total crypto market cap:about $2.74 trillion, down 2.31% in 24 hours; this item was last updated at 08:45 Beijing time.

BTC: Liquidation zone watch

A relatively clear potential short liquidation cluster above is about $81,800–$82,500, roughly 0.89%–1.75% from the current price; a potential long liquidation cluster below is about $79,700–$80,500, roughly 0.72%–1.70% away. The current price is closer to the lower zone; if price continues to fall, watch for volatility from long leverage unwinding.

ETH: Liquidation zone watch

A relatively clear potential short liquidation cluster above is about $2,380–$2,410, roughly 1.09%–2.36% away; a potential long liquidation cluster below is about $2,290–$2,315, roughly 1.67%–2.74% away. The near end of the upper zone is closer; if price continues moving toward it, watch for short liquidation pressure, but this alone cannot determine the breakout direction.

Institutional Cost Basis: BTC

Glassnode's October 28 aggregate cost basis estimate for U.S. spot BTC ETFs was about $81,500, with the current price about 0.51% below that reference. Strategy disclosed on October 26 that, as of October 25, it held 848,517 BTC with an average cost including fees of about $75,446; the current price is about 7.47% above its cost. The above differences only reflect unlevered changes in price relative to cost basis.

One-line market view

For BTC, focus on the $81,500 ETF cost reference and the $81,800–$82,500 liquidation zone above; they are close together. If price recovers upward, watch both cost recovery and short leverage unwinding; if it falls, first watch the near end of the lower liquidation zone around $80,500. For ETH, watch around $2,380. The nearer liquidation direction differs between the two assets, so they should not be judged uniformly.

Major U.S. equity index performance

The three major indexes closed slightly higher as markets digested the Fed's decision to hold rates steady. Index gains were limited, with greater divergence in individual earnings and supply-chain performance; the index rise should not be read as broad strength across large-cap tech stocks.

Performance of the Magnificent Seven

Magnificent Seven total2 up, 5 down, Alphabet and Amazon rose, while the others fell. Microsoft and Alphabet earnings reports were both released after the close mentioned above, so the prices in the table do not reflect the full market reaction after earnings.

Sector moves to watch

Data center infrastructure:Vertiv rose 16.48%,Oraclerose 10.73%, drawing attention to quarterly results and investor-day outlook, respectively. The market continues to test AI buildout demand, but cash-flow realization paths differ between equipment suppliers and cloud platforms.

Memory chips: Micronrose 5.86%, whileSK hynixearnings drew market attention. Going forward, watch how memory demand, pricing, and new supply jointly affect profitability, avoiding direct extrapolation from a single quarter.

Crypto-related stocks: Coinbaserose 0.76%, Strategy rose 2.66%,Robinhoodfell 3.31%. Robinhood's previously disclosed weak crypto business continued to draw attention, while Coinbase is scheduled to report results after the U.S. market close on the 29th.

III. In-Depth Analysis of Key U.S. Stocks

Microsoft | Strong cloud growth, cash conversion supports AI investment

Event overview:Microsoft closed at USD 531.01 in regular trading, down 0.06%, and subsequently reported first-quarter fiscal 2027 results. Revenue was USD 92.3 billion, up 19% YoY; Azure revenue grew 48%, and Microsoft Cloud revenue was USD 63.9 billion, up 30% YoY.

Market interpretation:Operating cash flow for the quarter was USD 58.0 billion, and cash purchases of fixed assets were USD 39.367 billion; the difference remained positive at USD 18.633 billion. This uses a cash-expenditure basis and should not be conflated with capital expenditures that include finance leases; cloud growth and cash-generation capability together support investment.

Investment takeaway:Going forward, watch whether Azure growth can be sustained and how depreciation, margins, and cash conversion change after new capacity investment. The timing gap between revenue recognition and equipment spending will affect how much cash AI growth ultimately leaves behind.

Alphabet | Cloud revenue doubles, quarterly free cash flow turns negative

Event overview:Alphabet closed at USD 324.89 in regular trading, up 1.34%, and reported third-quarter results after the close. Total revenue was approximately USD 127.6 billion, up 25% YoY; Google Cloud revenue was approximately USD 30.709 billion, up 103% YoY.

Market interpretation:Operating cash flow for the quarter was USD 42.290 billion, capital expenditures were USD 51.355 billion, and free cash flow was negative USD 9.065 billion. Cloud growth and cash-flow pressure coexisted, and Cloud revenue includes TPU system sales, so not all incremental revenue should be viewed as recurring cloud service revenue.

Investment takeaway:Focus on when capital expenditures generate sustained cash returns, the structure of cloud growth, and margins after expanded investment. Negative quarterly free cash flow does not mean operating activities are not generating cash, but it raises market demands for returns on investment.

Vertiv | Orders and profits grow together, full-year guidance raised

Event overview:Vertiv closed at USD 242.94, up 16.48%. Third-quarter net sales were USD 4.313 billion, up 61% YoY; organic orders grew more than 100% YoY, and adjusted EPS was USD 2.21, up 78% YoY.

Market interpretation:The company's adjusted operating margin reached 25.2%, and it raised the midpoint of full-year net sales guidance to USD 14.65 billion. Improvements in orders, sales, and margins enhanced visibility into demand for power and cooling infrastructure.

Investment takeaway:Going forward, watch order conversion, capacity delivery, and working capital usage to assess whether high growth can be consistently converted into cash. After a sharp share-price rise, execution of actual deliveries relative to guidance is worth tracking.

IV. Market and Project Developments

Oracle | Provides a timeline for long-term revenue and cash-flow realization

At its October 28 Investor Day, Oracle proposed a FY2030 revenue target of at least $225 billion, expects free cash flow to turn positive in H2 FY2028, and targets at least $30 billion in free cash flow for FY2029.

These are management's forward-looking targets, and realizing them will require orders to convert into revenue, lower capital spending, and financing arrangements. For investors, the timing and conditions for free cash flow to turn positive are as important as the revenue targets.

RippleWith Coinbase |RLUSDExpanded to Retail and Institutional Platforms

The two parties announced the partnership on October 28, integrating RLUSD with Coinbase Prime, Coinbase Exchange, and retail apps, and supporting deposits and withdrawals on XRPL, Base, and Ethereum; support for Coinbase Global Exchange and collateral use will be introduced later.

The partnership expands access to trading, custody, and settlement for the stablecoin, but its actual impact still depends on usage and liquidity. Platforms already live should be assessed separately from future plans.

StellarEcosystem | Pontoro Launches Private Asset Liquidity Pool Pilot

Pontoro and Archax launched the first automated liquidity pool pilot on the Stellar network, combining higher-liquidity money-market assets with private fund portfolios and using rules-based pricing to manage liquidity.

The pilot aims to improve liquidity mechanisms for private assets, but tokenization itself does not guarantee redemption at any time. Going forward, actual trading, redemption arrangements, and investor suitability requirements should be monitored.

5. Today's Market Calendar

All times are in Beijing Time; earnings releases spanning multiple days are marked with full dates; attention levels are editorial assessments.

Key Event Preview:GDP and PCE will test both growth resilience and inflation pressure, potentially affecting expectations for the Federal Reserve's future policy. Amazon and Coinbase earnings will provide additional evidence on cloud investment returns, crypto trading, and stablecoin operations.

Institutional Views:Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, noted on October 28 that holding rates unchanged was largely in line with expectations, and the market is still watching whether AI spending can continue. Given today's mixed earnings results, it is more useful to compare how quickly each company converts spending into revenue and cash flow.

This article provides market information and research observations only and does not constitute investment advice.

Source: TechFlow