Without a Crypto Bull Market, Why Could HYPE Reach $128?

Written by: DCo

Translated by Saoirse, Foresight News

Hyperliquid is gradually evolving into a multi-asset trading platform, and one-third of its trading volume no longer comes from crypto. We estimate the value implied for HYPE if this trend continues, crypto trading volume returns to bull-market levels, and Hyperliquid captures a small share of global index futures, commodity futures, and equity trading markets.

• In October, non-crypto categories accounted for 30% of Hyperliquid's total trading volume; on October 27, the single-day share reached 40%, peaking at 51% in July.
• The corresponding global traditional finance market is valued at $740 trillion in 2025, with average annual growth of about 6%, and is expected to reach $934 trillion by 2029. In 2029, every 1% share of this market would correspond to $9.3 trillion in trading volume, equal to 3.3 times Hyperliquid's current total trading volume.
• Our base case: by 2029, crypto trading volume increases to 3 times the current level; Hyperliquid captures a 3% share of this continuously expanding global market, with a blended fee rate of 0.006%; the USDC yield declines to 3.6%; and HIP‑4 generates $100 million in revenue. Revenue grows from the current $944 million to $4.91 billion in 2029.
• Discounted at a 20% discount rate, based on the remaining 890 million HYPE after buybacks, and at a 40x revenue multiple, the HYPE price target is $128.
• The optimistic scenario (capturing a 5% market share and a 40x multiple) implies a price of $165; compared with our March report, the optimistic price target remains above the previous $124, even though the token base used in this calculation is nearly three times the original.
• Today, capturing traditional finance market share has a greater impact than crypto bull and bear cycles. Using a 25x multiple: tripling crypto trading volume would raise the price per HYPE by only about $30, while increasing market share from 1% to 5% would lift the price by about $48.
• The biggest risk comes from fees. If fees on traditional finance business fall to CME levels, the base-case price target would decline to $66 at a 30x multiple.

Beyond the Crypto Bubble

For years, crypto trading platforms have mainly served insiders. Hyperliquid may be the first platform to break this barrier by opening its trading infrastructure to a far larger external user base. We have already seen signs: traders have used Hyperliquid to bet on market direction during events including escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and the Tesla Roadster launch event.

This shift in trading behavior means we need to reassess its valuation logic. Even a very small share of the global trading market would be substantial relative to Hyperliquid's current scale, but fees on such traditional finance trading volume are much lower.

One year ago, Hyperliquid only supported crypto trading. HIP‑3 changed that. Individual stocks, indices, commodities, and forex can now share the same margin account with Bitcoin perpetuals, and traders are indeed trading these instruments.

Monthly Hyperliquid trading volume changes from September 2025 to October 2026

The non-crypto share of trading volume rose from 0 in September 2025 to 51% in July 2026, then stabilized at about one-third; on October 27, non-crypto categories accounted for 40% of the platform's $7.2 billion single-day total trading volume. Individual stocks are currently the largest non-crypto trading category, with trading volume exceeding indices and commodities.

This business is not affected by Bitcoin's price movements, which is why we value it separately.

Hyperliquid Has Not Yet Experienced a Major Bull Market

We often say that Hyperliquid has not yet entered a major bull market; the data supports this view to some extent, and a more precise interpretation would be more useful.

Binance Monthly Trading Volume Since 2020

We pulled Binance's public API data from 2019 onward to aggregate its spot, USDT-margined, and coin-margined contract trading volume. Binance's all-time volume peak occurred in May 2021 at $4.3 trillion, before Hyperliquid launched. Since Hyperliquid launched, the market has seen three volume peaks: March 2024, November–December 2024 (about $3.7 trillion per month), and October 2025 ($3.5 trillion).

But during most market highs, Hyperliquid was still relatively small in scale. During the 2024 market boom, its crypto futures trading volume was only 2%–6% of Binance's; the share did not exceed 10% until February 2025, and has remained at that level since.

Ratio of Hyperliquid's crypto trading volume to Binance's crypto futures trading volume

Binance's current crypto trading volume is only 38% of its December 2024 peak, and its spot trading volume is only 16% of its May 2021 peak. Therefore, Hyperliquid's current annualized trading revenue of $781 million represents a cycle-bottom level. Binance's peak-month volume is 2.4–3x the current level, which is the basis for our baseline assumption that crypto trading volume will triple from the current level by 2029. Hyperliquid has not yet gone through a full year sustaining such high trading volume.

Entering mainstream markets puts fees under pressure

If Hyperliquid wants to capture a few percentage points of global futures and equity trading markets, its fee pricing must benchmark against established exchanges, which it cannot yet do.

Difference in retained fee revenue per $1 million of notional volume for Hyperliquid crypto perpetuals, HIP-3 growth-mode products, and CME equity index futures.

After rebates and discounts, the protocol retains about 0.037% of crypto perpetual contract trading volume. Products under HIP-3 are in growth mode, so the protocol retains only 0.0037%. CME's Q3 2026 equity index business yields revenue of only 0.0004% of notional trading volume. In other words, even Hyperliquid's discounted TradFi fees remain about 9x CME's.

Competition is already here. Binance launched 229 TradFi perpetual contracts this year, with daily trading volume for these contracts at about $13.4 billion; Hyperliquid's is only $2.3 billion. The growth mode has no deadline; the team has only added an adjustment switch that can raise fees for specific markets.

Our baseline scenario assumes a blended non-crypto fee rate of 0.006% starting in 2027. This rate is composed of about 7% of non-crypto trading volume switching to the standard rate (protocol retention of 0.037%), while the remaining volume stays in growth mode. This rate is still 15x CME's and is the assumption most likely to break in the entire model. At the end, we demonstrate the valuation impact if fees fall to CME levels.

Target: $4 billion in annual revenue

We estimate four revenue sources and sum them, with 99% of total revenue allocated to the Assistance Fund to buy back HYPE and reduce circulating supply.

1. Crypto trading revenue = crypto trading volume × crypto fees. We assume trading volume grows 3x from $1.98 trillion per year to $5.9 trillion by 2029, while the current 0.037% fee rate remains unchanged.
2. Non-crypto trading revenue = Hyperliquid's captured global market share × non-crypto fees, with a blended fee rate of 0.006% starting in 2027. The global market size was $740 trillion in 2025; we project 6% annual growth (consistent with global equity market growth since 2015: $114 trillion in 2015 and $204 trillion in 2025), reaching a $934 trillion market size by 2029.
3. Under the AQAv2 rules, 90% of USDC reserve yield on the Hyperliquid platform is allocated to the Assistance Fund. The first payout earned $14.58 million over 30 days, equivalent to an annualized $177 million, against this year's $5.1 billion in reserves and a 3.9% yield. We assume the yield falls to 3.6% by 2029, in line with the Federal Reserve's median forecast for that year. Reserve size will grow in tandem with crypto trading volume and USDC deposits from new traders; we assume new traders deposit 0.05% of their annual trading volume.
4. HIP‑4 prediction markets launched in May, and we estimate this business will generate $100 million in revenue by 2029.

Base-case Hyperliquid revenue forecast

Total revenue will grow 5.2x to $4.91 billion. Of the $3.97 billion in incremental revenue, nearly two-thirds comes from outside crypto trading: $1.65 billion from non-crypto fees, $756 million from USDC interest, and $100 million from HIP‑4.

What expectations are already priced into the current price?

We discount 2029 revenue to present value at a 20% discount rate (consistent with the discount rate used in prior reports). The $4.91 billion of revenue in 2029 has a present value of $2.84 billion. We then apply different revenue multiples and divide by the number of HYPE tokens remaining in 2029. Calculation basis: total supply of 998.8 million tokens, less the 48.3 million tokens already held by the Assistance Fund, and less the tokens repurchased and burned from 2027–2029 using 99% of revenue. The repurchase price gradually rises from the current $77 to the 2029 target price under the corresponding scenario; the higher the multiple, the fewer tokens are consumed by repurchases: about 87 million tokens are burned at a 25x multiple, 76 million at 30x, and 61 million at 40x.

HYPE token target prices at different revenue multiples and market share assumptions, assuming crypto trading volume triples from current levels

Example calculation: 3% market share and a 40x multiple. In 2029: crypto trading revenue of $2.2 billion (5.94 trillion × 0.037%), non-crypto trading revenue of $1.68 billion (3% of the 934 trillion market, i.e., 28 trillion × 0.006%), USDC interest of $935 million (28.9 billion in reserves × 3.6% × 90%), and a HIP‑4 contribution of $100 million, for a total of $4.91 billion. Discounted for three years at 20% (divided by 1.2×1.2×1.2=1.728), the present value is $2.84 billion. A 40x valuation corresponds to a fully diluted market cap of $113.8 billion. At this multiple, about 61 million HYPE tokens are repurchased and burned by 2029, leaving 890 million tokens, implying a price of $128.

HYPE pricing model: Assuming crypto trading volume reaches 3x current levels, at a 40x revenue valuation, only a 0.5% global market share is needed to support a price of $81; the green area represents prices above the current price on October 27.

It is important to remember this assumption: the vast majority of non-crypto trading volume remains in growth mode throughout.

Another way to think about it: the current $77 price implies the following pricing expectations: a 38x revenue multiple is needed for 0.5% share, 23x for 3% share, 18x for 5% share, and roughly only 10x for 10% share. CME trades at a 25x P/E, and ICE at 23x. In other words, current market pricing roughly corresponds to a 2%–3% market share at traditional exchange valuation levels, or a lower share with a growth premium.

Under a 25x revenue valuation assumption, HYPE prices are compared across different global market shares and crypto trading volume multiples; tripling crypto trading volume and increasing market share can both push the token price higher.

Market share now outweighs the crypto cycle. At a 25x multiple, tripling crypto trading volume raises HYPE's price by about $30; raising market share from 1% to 5% raises it by about $48. Even if crypto trading volume stays flat, supporting a $77 price would require capturing 5% market share at a 25x multiple.

Market logic has changed, so valuation frameworks must change too.

In March, when HYPE was priced at $37, we used a 20x 2028 revenue multiple to run a four-scenario valuation: bear case $60 (0.01% of the $1.74T daily average market), base case $72 (0.10%), bull case $124 (0.50%), and extreme bull case $190 (1.00%), corresponding to 2028 revenue of $1.4B–$4.6B. Seven months later, HIP‑3 annualized trading volume reached $870B, already above the $640B implied by the base case's 0.10% share and about one-quarter of the way to the bull-case target. Below is a comparison of the March model and the current model.

We compared HYPE valuations across the four scenarios in March and now: although total token supply nearly tripled, the bull-case target price was raised from $124 to $165.

If we had kept the earlier version and valued only circulating tokens, the base-case price would have been about $280 rather than $98. Another key parameter reduced in this model is fees: the March model assumed HIP‑3 paid the protocol a 0.05% revenue share (the rate before Growth Mode launched), while the current model uses 0.006%. The bear-case valuation is lower than in March because we switched to fully diluted supply (FDV) instead of relying only on circulating market cap.

Variables affecting valuation

Upside factors

• If we valued based on actual circulating tokens rather than fully diluted supply, the price would roughly double. Fully diluted supply includes future unlocks that may never enter circulation.
• Lowering the discount rate from 20% to 15% raises the base-case valuation from $98 to $111 at a 30x multiple.
• Hyperliquid currently retains 0.18% of annual trading volume as USDC margin, compared with just 0.01% at CME. If traditional finance traders also become accustomed to leaving funds on the platform like crypto traders, USDC interest income would be far higher than our assumptions.
• Each $1 of options premium can drive $10–$20 in perpetual futures hedging volume. Native options have not yet launched on HyperCore, so the model does not include this incremental volume.

Our supply assumption: by 2029, all tokens scheduled to unlock enter circulation: 302 million currently circulating, 238 million held by core contributors, and 410 million listed by Hyperliquid as future unlocks, less buybacks and burns (about 76 million at a 30x multiple). If only half of the scheduled unlocks circulate by 2029, supply would be about 683 million, and the base-case price would rise from $98 to $125 at a 30x multiple; if these tokens do not circulate at all, supply would be 493 million and the price $173.

We modeled HYPE prices under a 30x revenue valuation for different amounts of unlocked tokens circulating in 2029: the lower the circulating supply, the higher the token valuation. If only half of the scheduled unlocks enter the market, the base-case price rises from $98 to $125.

Downside risk factors

• If non-crypto trading fees fall to CME's 0.0004%, the base-case valuation at a 30x multiple drops from $98 to $66; if all products remain in Growth Mode, it would be $85. Crypto perpetual futures fees also face competitive pressure: Lighter previously introduced zero fees, and Binance's traditional finance perpetual futures volume is 6x Hyperliquid's, making competition intense.
• The base case assumes that by 2029, crypto trading volume and fee revenue average 3x current levels, implying $98 at a 30x multiple. If they reach only 1.5x current levels, the base-case price is $71 at a 30x multiple; if volume remains flat, it is $62.
• USDC interest income is the source of $935 million in revenue in 2029, making U.S. interest rates critical. For every 100-basis-point cut, this revenue declines by more than a quarter; at a 2.6% rate, the base price is $92.

All estimates in this article are based on the interactive HYPE valuation model, and all parameters can be adjusted.

Source: 深潮 TechFlow