US Market Trends (October 30): Amazon Capex Surges, Intel Q4 Guidance Misses Expectations

Written by: Tide Direction Research

A string of tech earnings triggered a sell-off. On Thursday, Google plunged 12.64%, the Nasdaq fell 1.38%, and the three major indexes ended a three-day winning streak. After hours, Amazon's cloud revenue grew nearly 40%, but heavy capital expenditures and deteriorating cash flow worried investors; Intel's Q4 earnings guidance was below expectations, and its shares briefly dropped more than 20%. Healthcare, real estate, and small-cap stocks rose against the trend, and the decline did not spread across the entire market.

Nasdaq falls 1.38%, healthcare and small-cap stocks rise against the trend

On Thursday, the S&P 500 fell 0.30% to 7720.39; the Nasdaq fell 1.38% to 26184.72; the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.25% to 52342.56. The VIX rose 1.71% to 17.20. The Russell 2000 small-cap index rose 1.01%.

Among the 11 S&P sector ETFs, healthcare, real estate, consumer staples, utilities, financials, materials, industrials, consumer discretionary, and energy rose, while information technology and communication services fell. Healthcare rose 2.40%, real estate rose 2.21%; information technology fell 1.18%, communication services fell 1.87%.

In the regular trading session, among the Magnificent Seven, Meta rose 1.96% and Apple rose 1.48%; Microsoft fell 0.16%, Tesla fell 0.23%, Nvidia fell about 0.8%, Amazon fell 4.25%, and Alphabet A fell 12.64%.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 1.42% to 11518.20, ending a four-day winning streak. Intel fell 3.62%, Arm fell 3.02%, and AMD fell 2.08%. Most memory stocks declined: SanDisk fell 5.32%, Micron fell 4.98%, and SK Hynix fell 1.58%; Seagate rose 0.36%.

Among other individual stocks, Marvell fell 13.24% and Caterpillar fell 9.25%; Eli Lilly rose 6.63% after raising its full-year revenue guidance.

The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 0.20% to 5411.30. PDD rose 2.34% and JD.com rose 0.71%; Alibaba fell 1.41% and Baidu fell 1.07%.

U.S. Treasury yields pulled back. Based on the U.S. Treasury's published daily term yields for the day, the 10-year yield was 4.98% and the 2-year yield was 4.61%, down 7 and 6 basis points from the previous day, respectively. Spot gold pulled back to around $4,020 per ounce. At the time of this morning's editorial check, Bitcoin was about $76,900 and Ethereum was about $2,219.

Amazon AWS Grows 39%, Capex Exceeds Expectations

Amazon reported third-quarter results after hours on Thursday, with net sales of $201.94 billion, up 12% year over year and slightly below market expectations; earnings per share were $1.89, down about 3% year over year.

Operating profit fared better than net profit, rising about 61% year over year to $28.08 billion, with an operating margin of 13.9%. The decline in net profit was mainly due to a high base in the same period last year: in Q3 2025, the company recognized $9.5 billion in pretax gains from its stake in Anthropic, while no similar gains occurred in the same period this year.

AWS revenue grew 39.3% year over year to $45.98 billion, above analyst expectations. Online store revenue grew only 2%, and advertising revenue also fell short of expectations. Prime Day in most major markets was moved up to the second quarter this year, affecting Q3 revenue's year-over-year performance.

Cash outflows grew faster. Purchases of property and equipment in the quarter reached $77.26 billion, above analyst expectations. For the trailing 12 months ended September 30, free cash flow was a net outflow of $42.36 billion, compared with a net inflow of $14.79 billion in the same period last year.

The company maintained its full-year cash capital expenditure plan of about $220 billion and forecast Q4 net sales of $240 billion to $247 billion, with the midpoint of the range slightly below market expectations. After the earnings report, the stock briefly fell more than 10% in after-hours trading.

Intel Q4 Guidance Weak, Factory Accident Affects Supply

Intel's third-quarter revenue was $16.5 billion, up 21% year over year; adjusted earnings per share were $0.52, above analyst expectations. However, Q4 revenue and earnings forecasts both missed market expectations, and the stock briefly fell more than 20% in after-hours trading.

The company expects Q4 revenue of $15.0 billion to $16.0 billion, versus market consensus of about $17.0 billion; adjusted EPS is expected to be $0.25, below consensus of about $0.43.

In Q3, data center and AI business revenue rose 78% year over year to $7.3 billion; client business revenue declined 5% to $8.1 billion. Management expects PC market weakness to persist at least through the first half of 2027. Rising memory prices are pushing up overall system costs and weighing on end demand.

Server chips, meanwhile, face a supply shortage. An explosion at the Kiryat Gat factory in Israel in October halted production; the company expects the incident to reduce Q4 revenue by about $300 million and lower gross margin by about 2 percentage points, with a similar impact possibly extending into Q1 next year.

U.S. Q3 GDP grows 3.4%, September inflation rebounds

The first estimate of U.S. Q3 real GDP rose 3.4% quarter over quarter on an annualized basis, faster than Q2's 2.2%. Investment, consumption, and government spending all contributed to growth, with the increase in equipment investment mainly driven by computers and peripherals.

The September PCE price index rose 3.6% year over year, higher than August's 3.4%; it rose 0.5% month over month. Excluding food and energy, core PCE rose 3.1% year over year and 0.3% month over month.

Household income and consumer spending are not growing in sync. For the month, personal income rose 0.2% month over month, while consumer spending rose 0.5%; the personal savings rate was 3.8%. After price effects, real spending was roughly flat, and higher nominal spending does not mean consumption volumes increased in step.

Economic growth has accelerated, but inflation remains above target, and this data is not enough to rule out further Federal Reserve rate hikes.

Crude settles lower, Saudi facilities reportedly attacked again

On Thursday, WTI crude December contract fell 0.76% to settle at $102.00 per barrel; Brent crude December contract fell 0.38% to settle at $114.88 per barrel.

The U.S. is attempting to resume engagement with Iran, and expectations of talks briefly weighed on oil prices. Houthi forces subsequently claimed attacks on Saudi oil refining facilities, and Brent turned higher after settlement. The extent of damage and the actual supply impact remain to be confirmed.

Today's focus

At 20:30 Beijing Time, the U.S. releases the Q3 Employment Cost Index.Focus on wage and benefits cost growth to assess whether labor costs continue to put pressure on services inflation.

Source: 深潮 TechFlow