Musk: Orbital Compute Will Surpass Terrestrial Compute by the End of 2028

TechFlow reported that on October 31, Sequoia Capital partner Shaun Maguire published a bottom-up SpaceX financial model covering through the end of 2028. X user SPCX100T organized the quarterly data under the median scenario into a chart, saying SpaceX revenue will reach a clear inflection point in 2027.

According to the model, SpaceX's FY2026 revenue will be about $51.5 billion, FY2027 about $270 billion, and FY2028 will exceed $700 billion, with growth primarily driven by the SI business segment.

Maguire said that because the industry is changing rapidly, these forecasts have a wide margin of error.

Musk replied under the post that terrestrial compute is 'trivial' compared with orbital compute, and that monthly deployed orbital compute will likely surpass terrestrial compute around the end of 2028 and far exceed it in 2029.

Source: TechFlow